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Kaleidescape vs. DIY (RIPing)

JohnJ

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There has been a long discussion on another forum that I finally gave in and responded to. I thought I should cross-post to here as it does summarize some of the information that I have been collecting here:

http://www.kscapeowners.com/forums/showpost.php?p=26720&postcount=1

Note: This is only meant as a “4K discs are going away (with data to back it up)” and not a discussion of DIY.

******
Kaleidescape vs. DIY (Ripping)

Other people have noted this but I thought it would be good to point this out as it has a direct bearing on the DIY solution.

There are currently 232 4K titles on K that are not available in 4K on disc. Over the past year that I have been tracking this, this number has been increasing at the rate of 6.2 titles/month added to the store that are not available in 4K on disc. Over this time period there have been exactly four (4) titles added on disc from this list - these titles are not being back-filled.

With the trend toward streaming, I agree with the people who suggest that discs will be going away eventually and that there will be an increase in 4K titles that are not offered on disc. The studios have shown that with 4K they are very sensitive to cracking of the encryption of these titles so I expect this to accelerate the process.

Long term (and short term also depending on your usage) RIPing discs does not seem to be a viable solution. YMMV.

John
 
I agree that the thread over on that other forum is out of hand.

A whole bunch of folks that embody this sentiment: http://www.kscapeowners.com/forums/faq.php?faq=ko_faq#faq_new_faq_item4

I agree with you that discs are going away... But I slightly disagree that 6.2 titles a month added to the K store but not on disc is a definitive measurement on the demise of discs in general.

I say this just because the friction to add a title to a digital store vs pressing discs is much less. Yes this does describe the end game, but in the near term have you considered that they might just have a schedule of releasing X number of new 4k disc titles per month/quarter/etc? In the past there have been titles that people were clamoring to buy on BD, but despite this said title might have taken years to finally be released on that medium for reasons only known to the studios.

There a still a decent number of folks that appreciate the quality of 4k discs over streaming and if there is a buck to be made, I feel like the movie studios aren't going to turn those $'s down.
 
I don’t disagree that there is some variability in the 6.2 titles.mo. This is just the average in what I have tracked from July 2018 through April 2019 - 62 titles over 10 months. For May-August it was it was slightly less - 20 titles over 3.3 months or 5.7 titles/mo.

We will see what the It looks like going forward as I will continue to track.

John

ETA: I have considered the idea that the Studios were just taking longer to release the 4K discs. In fact, that is what I initially thought would happen. But now after tracking this since January 31, 2018, there have been a total of 4 titles released on disc with one more coming 29 October 2019 (It’s a Wonderful Life). I have revised my opinion because of this. But I could be wrong on this.
 
I'm active in that thread over an AVS as well (JaremyP there). I wouldn't call it out of hand. I think it's pretty rationale for AVS.

AVS has a huge enthusiast community doing DIY media, HTPCs, and so on. I've been among that crowd for a long time. There are those of us below the uber wealthy profile of K clientele that want what K offers, but have thought twice because of the costs of it. There's some of us then too (like Thrang and I) that did buy into K but strongly want certain things to happen in the platform.

IMO, there is a huge part of this AVS community that would be extremely well served to use K and get out of the DIY space. I think this would really benefit K too if a mass exodus to K would happen with these folks. This group (myself included) represents really technologically aware and focused people. People that are influencers to friends, family, and others.

If K could endear a large collection of these folks to buy-in and love the platform, the ripple effect of sentiment and reaching a broader customer base could be huge.

Regarding the UHD content differential, IMO it's very clear how much digital delivery is being favored vs. discs. iTunes as well has hundreds more 4k/HDR items than disc.

It would be interesting if we had the data recorded historically to plot time (X-axis using monthly ticks) vs. the number of 4k K store entries not on disc since the inception of 4k.

Most importantly would be analyzing the slope of the lines over time. I suspect the slope of the line would be increasing at a clearly higher rate as time has gone by indicating the gap will only grow and at an increasingly faster rate. That would really show how digital releasing will be a pressure factor on disc obsolescence.
 
I'm active in that thread over an AVS as well (JaremyP there). I wouldn't call it out of hand. I think it's pretty rationale for AVS.

AVS has a huge enthusiast community doing DIY media, HTPCs, and so on. I've been among that crowd for a long time. There are those of us below the uber wealthy profile of K clientele that want what K offers, but have thought twice because of the costs of it. There's some of us then too (like Thrang and I) that did buy into K but strongly want certain things to happen in the platform.

IMO, there is a huge part of this AVS community that would be extremely well served to use K and get out of the DIY space. I think this would really benefit K too if a mass exodus to K would happen with these folks. This group (myself included) represents really technologically aware and focused people. People that are influencers to friends, family, and others.

If K could endear a large collection of these folks to buy-in and love the platform, the ripple effect of sentiment and reaching a broader customer base could be huge.

Regarding the UHD content differential, IMO it's very clear how much digital delivery is being favored vs. discs. iTunes as well has hundreds more 4k/HDR items than disc.

It would be interesting if we had the data recorded historically to plot time (X-axis using monthly ticks) vs. the number of 4k K store entries not on disc since the inception of 4k.

Most importantly would be analyzing the slope of the lines over time. I suspect the slope of the line would be increasing at a clearly higher rate as time has gone by indicating the gap will only grow and at an increasingly faster rate. That would really show how digital releasing will be a pressure factor on disc obsolescence.

The thing the DIY crowd tends to forget is the cost of labor. How much is their time worth. So not only will we eventually see the physical medium go away (something 10 years ago I would have said would be a horrible thing), but the ease of use and the time saving will factor in.
 
The thing the DIY crowd tends to forget is the cost of labor. How much is their time worth. So not only will we eventually see the physical medium go away (something 10 years ago I would have said would be a horrible thing), but the ease of use and the time saving will factor in.

1000%, yes, I agree with you.

Many folks in the DIY crowd give no credence to the money value of time. People will balk at spending $5,000 on something like a Strato, still end up pouring thousands into servers/drives/players/software, and then put thousands of hours into setup, ripping, and configuration while thinking they are so much ahead.

I've been guilty of this in the past myself, for sure. Now though at 42 and with kids at 9 and 6 seemingly overnight, I have more money than time and can feel the pressure of time lost sharply in my life.
 
Many folks in the DIY crowd give no credence to the money value of time...

Perhaps, but it's certainly the case that the "money value of time" is very different for each and every one of them.

Some for example are retired, have loads of time for hobbies, and find the hours spent to be enjoyable/fun/challenging/worthwhile or otherwise get a lot of personal satisfaction out of figuring-out how to leverage the funds already spent on a disc collection.

I really don't want to spend any more money on a movie if I already own the BD or HD-DVD. OTOH I have been keen to replace my DVDs, at least where the improvements in PQ/AQ does benefit the flick.
 
I'm a DIY-er kinda person... or at least I have been. Now with three kids (nearly 6, 3, nearly 1), my time is far more important and I have far less of it for hobbies and researching DIY stuff. I always wanted a K-scape system, but the cost was a bit prohibitive for me. Now, it's more reachable.

I started a few months ago working on a Plex server with the goal of ripping all of my Blu-ray and 4K material so I could hide the discs and have an easy interface (kids and discs don't mix well). I'm a computer hobby person, so none of the setup was a concern for me. However, i STILL ran into problems that were issues with the software. And control (fast forward, chapter skip, rewind, etc) once you're playing isn't seamless either. Finally, passing digital audio so it's bit for bit isn't working the way I want it to either.

In the end, it's much easier to rely on Kaleidescape, and the interface is STELLAR. My only concern is if K-scape goes out of business, I could lose all the media I purchase. But honestly, I think K-scape is at the forefront of digital distribution. As others said, 4K Blu-ray is the LAST physical media we'll get. Everything after this will be digital distribution. Fits the studios' desire to control it anyway.

I think a great way for K-scape to reach others who cant/wont spend as much on the hardware is to come up with an Alto-like box that will do 1080p (Blu-ray) only, and maybe expandable storage. Lots of people would be fine with that at this point, and it'd be a great way to expand their user base.
 
I kind of skimmed through this and didn’t re-read the comments from the prior older thread. I do have a few comments.

There’s a significant amount of titles lately that are not being released on 4K disc, but only BD and DVD to an extent. Streaming is however 4K, and HD, with maybe SD. Prices are often the same on all stream formats or maybe just lower two with 4K being more.

I’m not happy with newer titles not being on 4K disc but I’ve expected this for some time. Physical is dying. Likewise DVD still sells quite well, even when BD is cheaper. A large percentage of population doesn’t seem to instant the economics of buying a cheap BD player and cheaper BD or buying DVD for their older DVD players.

I see this as a bid by Hollywood to push people to streaming as well into 4K.

Most of those titles that are not on 4K disc are recent releases, but also lower rated, and less performing at the box office. Hollywood has been on a push the last decade to be more focused on doing more blockbusters and less content, instead of spreading themselves over numerous titles that most of which wouldn’t be huge money makers.

What can You really do though. I’d rather have the 4K disc (which might or might not be available) as well as a streaming / digital version. But I’m not going to buy both formats, ie BD and 4K streaming. Especially since most of those would be titles that drop in price really quick.

At the same time 4K disc titles have been dropping in price drastically compared to a few years ago. Before they stated high for some time, and then slowly dropped. Now you’re seeing them drop real quickly between preorder and street. Hen within weeks they drop even faster.

Even Disney 4K discs are dropping in price quickly. Disney discs have always had stable pricing, even BD. But in recent months I’ve seen not only Disney BD dropping and staying lower, but additionally seeing 4K disc dropping faster than BD and in a number of cases selling for less than BD, even on recent titles.

Additionally Hollywood is flooding he market with classic titles on 4K disc that are either marketed at sub $20 or quickly street if below $20, even $15.

Physical discs are in less demand with consumers, 4K discs seem to be dropping more then BD (or DVD which is kinda dead but stable). Hollywood is pushing 4K and making many 4K titles streaming only, and pushing streaming pricing to be cheaper than disc, and 4K similar or streaming to HD. Disney of course charges a premium for their streaming and 4K streaming where they can control pricing easier than disc

Disney+ also seems to be disrupting a potion of the market where savvy consumers realize they can pay a small flat rate for a massive catalog. Not to mention Disney’s surprisingly gracious discount to those that signed up for D+ for 3 years. If other studios do similar discs and especially “backing up” your disc collection is all but over.

Spotify, MOG, Pandora, Beats, Apple Music made it simpler and cheaper enough for people backing up their music collection for the music industry. The same thing is happening to the film industry even if they’ve been kicking, screaming, and dragging their feet along the way.

Observations based on three decades working at various major consumer electronics manufacturers and running my own physical disc resale business and previously a decade of private customer installations for notable client.

Take it with a gain of salt. Personal option.
 
...My only concern is if K-scape goes out of business, I could lose all the media I purchase...

This isn't strictly true, is it, assuming you have downloaded a copy of every movie that you purchased to your Kscape box? I dunno that it does, but even if the the Kscape box needed to "phone home" periodically to validate licenses, I would expect that if they went under that somehow a way to circumvent this would escape into the wild?
 
If K truly went under, I wouldn't consider keeping access to downloaded content as any real, viable ongoing solution. At that point, we effectively have paperweights. What good is a small static subset of movies that you can't add any new releases to? And how many users actually have their entire owned library fully physically downloaded?

That said, people make a big deal about business failure being a big risk factor for K. IMO, it's way overblown. Yes, they had a moment a few years ago, but by all accounts they are healthy now.

For that matter, every device, software, and solution you use has going out of business risk. Even the tech giants we assume will be here forever. Certainly, all of the companies involved in DIY have business risk as well as many other risks on top of that. There are dozens of reasons DIY could and more likely will roadblock and fail in the coming years. The coming changes in media and distribution really favor K.

The biggest risk, IMO, for K is Apple. Someday Apple could decide to double or triple bit rates for video and add lossless audio when streaming content from iTunes. Internet bandwidth already allows this. I have gigabit service and no data cap. I don't need to download my high bit rate media. I'd rather not download it actually, so I can just start watching any piece of owned content at any time. I'm perfectly capable already of streaming it.
 
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